If you have too much to do because you've agreed to do too many things, then you could suffer from a cognitive bias identified and explained by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called the Planning Fallacy. Today, we look at why this happens and what you can do about it in the future.
The Planning Fallacy is rooted in optimism and affected by how we think about the future. When we have to do something very soon, we are less likely to fall victim to it. We are well aware of all of the commitments we've already made.
However, asked to do something with a deadline that's six months out, we tend to think we will find the time. We overestimate the amount of free time we will have in the future.
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So, What is Happening Here From a Human Perspective?
When I ask you whether you're willing to do something, you simulate how hard it would be. How much time would it take?
When the deadline is close, then the urgency of it is very salient. We realize we would need to carve out time to make this happen. When it's far out in the future, we do not appreciate all the things you must do in the coming months that consume your time and create urgency.
For example, researchers asked students who had to write a senior thesis how long it would take. Then, they asked how long it would take in a worst-case scenario. The researchers found that for the majority of students, it took them much longer than their estimated worst-case scenario.
Here's another example. We do research for clients called the Emotional Signature, which determines what drives value for an organization. We've been doing it since 2005, so we know how to do it and how long it takes, which is about three months.
Upon hearing that, at least half of the clients will ask us if we can do it quicker. We can. However, many of these clients fail to realize that the three months aren't because we need three. They need three months.
We can do what we need to do in six weeks. However, they need six weeks to provide what they do for the project.
We explain all that to the clients. Upon hearing that caution, at least half of them still want the research plan to have a six-week date for completion. Almost none of them complete their project in that timescale.
Endemic Problems With The Planning Fallacy
However, from a Customer Experience perspective, the danger is that it happens across the organization. Let me tell you a story that shows you what I mean.
A healthcare organization supplier that installs healthcare systems, meaning the back-end systems medical facilities use, called us to help with an installation that was going poorly. Before the installation, their client viewed the supplier as very efficient, but afterward, not so much. Why? The problem stemmed from the poor planning that was taking place. This perception massively affected what the healthcare organization saw them as.
Within this scenario, we had three customers: the decision maker who bought the healthcare system product for installation, the project manager who manages the project, and the end users, who worked with the system at the healthcare facilities.
The end users hated the company because of all the problems the installation caused and the late hours they had to work. Those hateful feelings were less prominent the further up the healthcare organization you went to, but they still reached the decision-maker.
Interestingly enough, the healthcare provider was that they did this repeatedly. As we worked through the tangled web of organizational strife associated with the installation, I wondered whether the Planning Fallacy became endemic.
When you look at an organization, you recognize that different departments have different degrees of Planning Fallacy biases. For example, sales organizations tend to be more optimistic and overpromise than the engineering side of the house. That's because the engineering department typically gets left to deal with the fallout from poor planning. It's not surprising that, over time, this might lead to pessimism.